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Confused by the Odds: How Probability Misleads Us. David Lockwood, David Lockwood

Confused-by-the-Odds-How.pdf
ISBN: 9798886450033 | 248 pages | 7 Mb

• Confused by the Odds: How Probability Misleads Us
• David Lockwood, David Lockwood
• Page: 248
• Format: pdf, ePub, fb2, mobi
• ISBN: 9798886450033
• Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group Press

Free audio books for downloads Confused by the Odds: How Probability Misleads Us

Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests.   You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability.   Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations.   Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.

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Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and 
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But sometimes, we find phenomena that had extremely low probabilities of occurring. Critics of modern cosmology often point to these examples as 
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Why are American betting odds displayed in such a misleading way? The negative sign does not mean the opposite of the positive sign. All related (35).
Confused by the Odds - Foreword Reviews
Confused by the Odds is a fascinating historical survey of theories of probability—and their practical implications. Reviewed by Aimee Jodoin
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Relative Risk and Odds Ratios are often confused despite being unique The ratio of these two probabilities R1/R2 is the relative risk or risk ratio.

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